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Dulles Rail Phase 2
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stix
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/news/2012/10/17/five-chosen-to-compete-for-dulles.html

The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority has named five teams that will compete for the contract to design and build Phase 2 of the Dulles Corridor Metrorail project.

Phase 2 is expected to cost $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion. The contract will be awarded in May 2013, with Phase 2 completion expected in mid-2018. The teams competing for the work are:

    • Bechtel Transit Partners: Bechtel Infrastructure Corp.
    • Capital Rail Constructors: Clark Construction Group, Kiewit Infrastructure South Co.
    • Dulles APC Railbuilders: Archer Western Contractors LLC, PCL Civil Constructors Inc., Corman Construction Inc.
    • Dulles Metrorail Connectors: Skanska USA Civil Southeast/Granite Construction Company, G.A. & F.C. Wagman Inc/Trumbull Corp., Facchina Construction Company Inc.
    • Silver Line Constructors: Flour Enterprises Inc/Tutor Perini Corp./Stacy and Witbeck Inc.
Phase 2 will include six additional stations, including Reston Town Center, Herndon, Innovation Center, Dulles Airport, Route 606 and Route 772. Phase 1 of the Metrorail project, to the Wiehle-Reston East Station, is 82 percent complete and expected to open at the end of 2013.
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Bob Bruhns
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This information can be confirmed at the MWAA website:
http://www.metwashairports.com/5438.htm

Very Interesting. $1.4 Billion to $1.6 Billion, when the March 6, 2012 estimates were about $2.8 Billion? Perhaps $1.2 Billion to $1.4 Billion went into running us all around for the past few years. Or who knows, maybe the contractors turned in better bids than I expected, given the bloated estimates that MWAA handed us.

I recall seeing one Phase I cost report that seemed to be saying that about 50% of the Phase I cost went into some sort of preliminary planning, so perhaps that's what's going on with Phase II as well. I'll have to find that audit, and catch the little tidbits of information as they gradually leak out.

(EDIT October 18, 2012, 12:08 PM EDT):
I was thinking of the KPMG Phase I audit. The figure I saw there wasn't half of the $3.14 billion total estimate - but it was almost $773 million dollars for 'Professional Services'.

http://www.metwashairports.com/file/MWAA_KPMG_Phase1_Audit.pdf

From this April 17, 2012 KPMG Phase I Audit Report, from the top of Page 7 of the report (page 11 of the linked pdf):

Quote:
Table 2: Project Cost Summary by SCC Code, January 31, 2012

Description - Estimate at Completion

Guideway and Track Elements - $653,434,350

Stations - $307,849,928

West Falls Church Yard - $41,337,876

Site Work and Utility Relocation - $270,317,138

Systems - $310,729,378

Right of Way Acquisition - $65,011,618

Vehicles - $210,926,012

Professional Services - $772,870,177

Contingency Management Reserve - $10,586

Finance Charge - $509,984,571

Subtotal (A) - $3,142,471,635

Interrelated Highway Improvements (B) - $123,208,229
Total - $3,265,679,864
(Emphasis added)

I find it interesting also, that the total KPMG estimate for all five of the Phase I stations put together, with two of them being elevated stations as well, was $307,849,928 - when MWAA gave Fairfax County a $101 million pricetag for its on-ground Rt 28 / Innovation station alone. I wonder if the remarkably high estimates given to Fairfax and Loudoun Counties for that station, and for the five Phase II Metro parking garages, will now be reduced.
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stix
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For someone that attempts to pass himself off as a first rate cost estimator of rail projects, you are remarkably ignorant, especially when it comes to how major construction programs are budgeted, bid and managed.

You will find a way as usual to reject anything I say, but let me give you a few hints to help you in the apparent confusion exhibited in your post above,

    1. No cost proposals have been provided by the five contractor teams that have been selected. Only the RFQI phase of the procurement has bee completed.

    2. The five selected teams will now submit their proposed technical plan and firm pricing. Evaluation, negotiation and award to the winning team is projected to be by May/June 2013.

    3. The $1.4 - $1.6 billion is the MWAA cost bogie for the Design-Build contract only, which is just one cost element of the total Phase II cost.

    4. Other elements likely include costs for real estate, WMATA (including rail cars), VDOT consultation, program management, other procured items, finance charges and a contingency reserve.
As far as the Phase I KPMG audit is concerned, it is an encouraging sign the MWAA program management practices in place are "working as intended to allow for the effective management of the Project". KPMG did suggest a few improvements that no doubt will be implemented in Phase II....
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Bob Bruhns
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2012 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, stix - this is an MWAA estimate, from their cost estimators. Has anybody ever heard from these estimating companies? No, because none of our leaders ever happened to think of asking them about their remarkably high cost estimates. I wonder why that might be.

Real estate costs, when the project is mostly on established Right-of-Way? That must be some really expensive land there.

WMATA (including rail cars)? Well, the rail cars are a bit of a ripoff at $4 million each - but I think they will be more like $3 million each in this job. So: 64 cars, for $192 to $256 million. What else from WMATA? Is the rail yard suddenly not part of the construction?

VDOT consultation. This shows up on a $1.6 billion chart? That must be a very lucrative business! Maybe this explains why Mr. Connaughton was in favor of this project.

Program Management. Hmm, KPMG listed $773 million for professional services in Phase I. There must be some very happy professionals out there.

Other procured items. Well yeah, there could be some high priced items, if they have solid platinum stairways and such.

Finance charges. KPMG listed $510 million for finance charges in Phase I. Did somebody pre-pay for everything at the beginning of the project, and then start paying interest on it all?

Contingency reserve. The KPMG audit lists $78 million for Phase I - and it got eaten, and then some, by some surprises. A case of costs filling all available space? Remember when Phase I was months behind schedule, and Mame Reiley cracked the whip and threatened that late companies would not be allowed to bid on Phase II? The project got back on schedule real quick, didn't it. Let's not allow Phase II to get so far behind schedule, but I think we need more oversight and cost control on this job.

OK: $192 to $256 million for rail cars, $773 million for professional services, $510 million for finance charges, $78 million for contingency reserve - that adds up to about $1.6 Billion. This might seem reasonable, if one doesn't ask any questions.

Hmm, questions.

Why does the Dulles Rail Phase II per-mile cost (adjusted for components included) exceed the Franconia-Springfield Metro extension per-mile cost (adjusted by inflation) by about two to one? Why does the cost of our Rt 28 (Innovation) station exceed the cost of the more than comparable Fairfield, Connecticut Metro station by more than two to one? Why should the five Dulles Rail Phase II parking garages cost two times as much per space as other area parking garages, and more than two times the cost of the nearby Herndon, Virginia downtown parking garage? Are all of these other projects understating their costs by about 50%?

And why haven't MWAA's cost estimators been called to testify about such things? Our leaders sure seem to be ignoring the clearly evident excessive costs of this job. Why would they do that? Aren't our so-called 'leaders' lying to us when they keep saying that they are looking for ways to lower the tolls? What should we do about that?
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stix
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The long awaited DOT Audit report of the MWAA administrative, human resources and contracting has been released.

It is noteworthy that after many months in the preparation, that it mentions neither Phase 1 nor Phase 2, arguably the agencies most publically prominent current and pending contracts. That is not to say there are not report recommendations among the 13 or so that would benefit the Phase 2 competitive bid and ultimate contract. But based on the report as written, to leap to the conclusion as some have, that we are ‘not getting value for what is being spent’ on Phase 1 is unwarranted at best.

Or that the report somehow justifies the wild assertion that the current Phase 2 estimate is 2X overpriced is simply ludicrous by any standards. Five or ten percent overpriced perhaps since it only an estimate, but 100% overpriced has no creditability as decisively demonstrated by no one having come forward in all these months in agreement...
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Bob Bruhns
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi stix. So you think MWAA's parking garage cost estimate is bogus? Their current estimate is 48% higher than yours. Do you think we ought to call MWAA's estimators to justify their numbers?

And what about the rail station? How did Fairfield Connecticut build their Metrorail station for less than half of the $101 million that MWAA says ours should cost? MWAA tends to charge the full amount that they forecast - that's what they did in Phase I, and then some (finance and road work costs were added). Why would you think that would change now?

The Fairfield Connecticut Metrorail station is the more expensive dual side-platform design; ours is the less expensive single island-platform design. Their platforms can accommodate twelve-car trains, and it has full-length canopies over both platforms. I doubt that ours are designed for more than ten cars, if that, and our canopies extend over only about half of our platforms. So why does our Rt 28 Metrorail station cost 2.2 times as much as their Metrorail station, stix?

Gee, do you think somebody charged us 1.3 to 3.3 times as much as the cost should have been, as is happening in more than 80% of the multi-award jobs? Why didn't MWAA or their cost estimators say something? And why isn't our news media picking up on this? And why aren't our so-called 'leaders' saying anything about it? They keep telling us over and over again that they are looking at ways to keep the tolls down... so why aren't they looking at this? Could it possibly be that our so-called 'leaders' and the news media are lying and covering up the excessive costs? And maybe taking inappropriate gifts ... or something?

Also, MWAA said Phase I would cost $2.64 billion, but it cost $3.1 billion because of about $510 million in finance costs. And associated road work costs were added on top of that. Did you know that finance costs and associated road work costs are not part of the Dulles Rail estimates until some point after the job is approved and finacing is arranged? Because you listed finance costs as part of your comparison garage estimate. Were the associated road work costs part of your 'soft cost' estimate? You said that finance costs were part of your soft-cost estimate. Or were your soft costs only caused by MWAA bungling such as contractors getting paid $572 an hour to wait five hours to get approval for a contract, like the event that the Inspector General described in the audit report? Or such as paying contractors $1.5 million each for bidding on a job, etc?

Shouldn't you reduce your parking garage estimate at this point in the job, stix, so that your comparison will be fair? Of course, that would lower your pre-finance stated estimate, making MWAA's pre-finance stated estimate even more than 48% higher than yours. That would be inconvenient to your argument.

By the way, on Page 2 of the audit report (Page 3 of the pdf), the Inspector General reports that during the 2009-2011 period that he reviewed, for all MWAA contracts - not just the multi-award, but looking at all MWAA contracts - "MWAA used categorical exceptions to limit competition for almost two-thirds of MWAA’s contracts that exceeded $200,000." You don't think that might just possibly make the cost of the Dulles Rail job higher than it should be, stix? Maybe? Hmmm? Especially when MWAA routinely (more than 80% of the time) awarded the multi-award contracts to the contractor that charged 28% to 234% more than the others charged? Hmmm? Ya THINK?

Why are you being an apologist for this kind of contracting and billing, stix?
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stix
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You ought to call MWAA to justify your numbers in that my quick estimate for the Rt 28 garage was within 4% of theirs when using in part your own vtpi reference source and the standard inflation practice for this kind of construction (thats 4%, not 48% which is your lie about what I said that goes along with your 2X fairy tale).

To me 4% is close enough to MWAAs estimate to wait until the Phase 2 Design/Build contractor is selected and the negotiated cost for the garage is released....
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Bob Bruhns
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK stix, let's examine your claim.
http://restonweb.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=54572&highlight=vtpi#54572
Your post is the 14th post on that page.
On May 24, 2012, stix wrote:
This well qualified garage planning and design firm forecasts a 2012 “construction cost” of $17,021 per parking space for the Washington area. This is does not include any land acquisition or what your vtpi reference (link) calls “soft costs”, which includes items such as planning, design, permits, financing, etc. To get the total project cost, vtpi indicates that “soft costs” in the range of 30-40% need to be added to the “construction cost”. Therefore, for the Phase 2 Route 28 garage for example,

    The forecast "construction cost" would be 2027 spaces X $17,021 or $34.5 million..

    and the “soft costs” would typically be 35% X $34.5 or $12.1 million...

    for a total of $46.6 million
The MWAA Phase 2 cost of the Route 28 garage is $53 million, which if they followed standard costing practice includes inflation out to the anticipated mid-point of the construction project. At the indices they have been using, that would be approximately $4.4 million.

1) As I said, you cite finance costs in the soft costs now, before approval - but Phase I finance costs were added after the Phase I project was approved at $2.64 Billion - making the cost $3.14 billion now, per the April 17, 2012 KPMG Phase I audit. Oh, and associated road work added about $123 million, bringing the KPMG estimate to $3.27 billion.

2) Now let's look at your parking garage estimate.
stix wrote:
2027 spaces X $17,021 or $34.5 million..

and the “soft costs” would typically be 35% X $34.5 or $12.1 million...

for a total of $46.6 million

So, your estimate from May 24, 2012 for the Rt 28 parking garage was $46.6 million. But MWAA's parking garage estimate from March 6, 2012 was $168 million for three garages with a total capacity of 4939 spaces, meaning $168 million / 4939 = $34,015 per space. (This is for the three Phase II parking garages in Loudoun County, but it is very clear because it is ONLY for parking garages.) Applying that cost to the Rt 28 parking garage, $34,015 x 2027 = $68.9 million.

Calculating the percentage increase compared to your estimate from that time, $68.9 million / $46.6 million = 1.479, meaning that the MWAA estimate is about 48% higher than your estimate. No?

Yes. MWAA's estimate is 48% higher than yours, stix. This Dulles Rail project, also known as the Silver Line, is a ripoff!

OK, so how might you continue to pretend that MWAA's estimates are not excessive? Let's see. You may argue that those three $34,015 per space Phase II parking garages are in Loudoun County, and you may claim that for some strange reason, the Phase II parking garage costs in Fairfax County are only $26,394 per space. But that would bring you into conflict with the FTA estimate of July 3, 2011 (and MWAA agreed with that estimate at the time), that showed all of the Phase II parking garages in a remarkably narrow range of per-space cost. You would be claiming a 29% difference. And then the question would arise, "How can there be a 29% difference in these prices?"

Also - if you claim that MWAA will charge us much less for Phase II parking garages in Fairfax County, then you will be saying that MWAA is REALLY robbing us for the Rt 28 Metrorail station, because MWAA is estimating $236 million for our two parking garages plus the Rt 28 rail station.

Assuming (as I do) that MWAA's $34,015 per space parking garage cost applies in Fairfax County, that adds up to $34,015 x 3976 = $135 million, meaning that the Rt 28 station costs $236 million - $135 million = $101 million - which as I have shown is already 2.4 times what it should be. So if you decide to claim that MWAA's parking garage costs are actually lower in Fairfax County, then the rail station cost must be even higher than 2.4 times what it should be. You really need to do some arithmetic here, stix. You need to do it now.

Why don't you read my Dulles Rail / Slver Line cost report - it contains information and links and references that back up what I am saying.

I keep showing the excessive costs, and you keep calling me a liar, but you are finished now. You ballooned area parking garage prices as much as you could, and yet MWAA's estimate of Phase II parking garage cost is 48% higher than yours, and you called me a liar when I pointed that out.

Stix, a child could see that you are wrong! It's very strange that you can't see that. Are you deliberately lying?

When are you going to stop denying that MWAA's cost estimates are massively excessive? When are you (and the news media, and our so-called 'leaders') going to demand an explanation from MWAA's cost estimators on this job? Make it soon, OK? Very soon!
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stix
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 04, 2012 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This has all been debated before ad nauseam. My Rt 28 back-of-the envelope garage estimate was about 4% from the MWAA estimate of $53 million no matter how you twist my words.

The real question however is your amateurish analysis and the fact that not one of the funding partners or in the feds have agreed with you. So be it if you want to pretend that your Phase 2 cost estimate is better than the estimators AECOM and Parsons Brinkhoff and an independent estimator McDonough, Bolyard and Peck. I will continue to assume that they, not you are the most accurate (note I did not say theirs is perfect). No amount of your twisting and flip flopping words will change that.

Now have a nice day...
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Bob Bruhns
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 04, 2012 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stix, $53 million is 1.14 times $46.6 million - so the $53 million MWAA estimate from the July 3, 2011 FTA White paper was 14% higher than your May 24, 2012 estimate, not 4% as you repeatedly claim.

But it's even worse than that. On March 6, 2012, unnoticed by the news media and our so-called 'leaders', MWAA ballooned the parking garage and Rt 28 station costs by 29% and 22% respectively. So, the present MWAA estimate for parking garages means that the Rt 28 parking garage costs $68.9 million, not $53 million - and $68.9 million is 48% higher than your $46.6 million estimate.

So, you are saying that the Rt 28 garage cost should be about 2/3 of MWAA's estimate. Why do you continue to pretend that the Dulles Rail / Silver line project is not massively overpriced?
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Harrison
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 04, 2012 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regardless of the details you two keep arguing over, this project needs to be shut down due to the cost over runs. It's time to start looking at prosecuting people for defrauding the government. It only took 5 years to build the Hoover Dam between 1931 and 1936 using the 1930s technology.

This boondoggle (to use a Bob word) has gone on too long and at too much cost. It seems like the cost overruns were intended from the beginning. As a Loudoun County resident, I don't want anything to do with this project ever in any capacity. I assume most Fairfax County residents would feel the same if they looked at the overruns and fraud that come with this project.
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stix
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Bruhns wrote:
Stix, $53 million is 1.14 times $46.6 million - so the $53 million MWAA estimate from the July 3, 2011 FTA White paper was 14% higher than your May 24, 2012 estimate, not 4% as you repeatedly claim.

My quickie estimate for the Rt 28 garage was $51 million vs MWAA's $53 million, and at that no better than yours, and especially no better than the rail project experienced and professional bottom-up Phase 2 estimates of AECOM/Brinkheroff and an the independent estimator McDonough, Bolyard and Peck.

I expect the Rt 28 garage cost to pretty much hold at $53 million if the MOA savings agreed to by Fairfax County that are in the 100% PE estimate are realized. I am satisfied the 4% difference between my back-of-the-envelope estimate for the Rt 28 garage and the 100% PE estimate is well within the ball park...
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Bob Bruhns
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well stix, it was certainly tricky to figure out what you meant, when you stopped at a $46.6 million number, and then said something cryptic about a mid point and $4.4 million. At no point from May 24, 2012 until now did you actually state the figure of $51.1 million.

However, even if you meant $51.1 million on May 24, 2012, the March 6, 2012 MWAA estimate at $68.9 million is still 35% higher than yours. 35% is considerably higher than the 5% or 10% variation that you said you would find acceptable, so forgive me if I wonder what the heck you are talking about.

Still, I am happy that now you would welcome a public explanation of the official Phase II estimates, as you have stated on Patch. This is progress.
http://herndon.patch.com/articles/ig-reports-questions-mwaa-policies
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stix
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob Bruhns wrote:
Well stix, it was certainly tricky to figure out what you meant, when you stopped at a $46.6 million number, and then said something cryptic about a mid point and $4.4 million. At no point from May 24, 2012 until now did you actually state the figure of $51.1 million.


All you needed to do is read the next sentence after the $4.4 million, which was,

    "Bottom line, the Carl Walker/vtpi forecast and the MWAA cost are a mere $2 million apart.."
Working backward, $53 million minus $2 million is $51 million (46.6 + 4.4). Not really tricky.. but it did require some effort on your part....
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Bob Bruhns
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh well. MWAA still has you beat by 35%.
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